The market is never wrong but it can be manipulated and it can change. One question is: what timeframe do we define “winning” in? Because strategies can perform well in the short term but suck in the longer term.
E.g. Startup land and the choice to blitzscale vs bootstrap. Blitzscaling can produce awesome short term results in terms of AR…
The market is never wrong but it can be manipulated and it can change. One question is: what timeframe do we define “winning” in? Because strategies can perform well in the short term but suck in the longer term.
E.g. Startup land and the choice to blitzscale vs bootstrap. Blitzscaling can produce awesome short term results in terms of ARR growth and valuation but it may ultimately leave the founder with no equity. Which is presumably not the strategic outcome they were looking for.
All fair points, Matt. If the strategy isn't dead yet, it hasn't lost yet. Survival is one key aspect I often hear armchair strategists overlook, regardless the timeframe.
Having been crushed by vulture capitalists down to nigh zero percent by Round E in the last startup I played in, I feel ya'. However, watching the same suckers vote for the 5-year earn-out rainbow that I counseled against was vindictively satisfying. They also got zero pot o' gold at the end because the acquirer set the expense cap too high, but a contracts a contract. The M&A pros got the company and the tech for song. Three fire sales later, Berkshire owns my tech and is still presumably turning the crank on it. C'est la guerre.
The market is never wrong but it can be manipulated and it can change. One question is: what timeframe do we define “winning” in? Because strategies can perform well in the short term but suck in the longer term.
E.g. Startup land and the choice to blitzscale vs bootstrap. Blitzscaling can produce awesome short term results in terms of ARR growth and valuation but it may ultimately leave the founder with no equity. Which is presumably not the strategic outcome they were looking for.
All fair points, Matt. If the strategy isn't dead yet, it hasn't lost yet. Survival is one key aspect I often hear armchair strategists overlook, regardless the timeframe.
Having been crushed by vulture capitalists down to nigh zero percent by Round E in the last startup I played in, I feel ya'. However, watching the same suckers vote for the 5-year earn-out rainbow that I counseled against was vindictively satisfying. They also got zero pot o' gold at the end because the acquirer set the expense cap too high, but a contracts a contract. The M&A pros got the company and the tech for song. Three fire sales later, Berkshire owns my tech and is still presumably turning the crank on it. C'est la guerre.
All is fair in love, war, and venture capital.