I'll have 1, 16 and a side of "They did say no - three times - but the fourth time it came back with another slew of biased questions, they made the rational calculation that the running "No" battle was consuming more resource than "Yes" would" (sort of variant of 2)!
Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical aggregation in mitigating relative risk. Overly optimistic forecasts result from the adoption of an inside view of the problem, which anchors predictions on plans and scenarios.
Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management science, 39(1), 17-31.
I'll have 1, 16 and a side of "They did say no - three times - but the fourth time it came back with another slew of biased questions, they made the rational calculation that the running "No" battle was consuming more resource than "Yes" would" (sort of variant of 2)!
I have seen so many of these in action, it's like a list of organisational dysfunctions 😢
What a terrific list. An honest look in the mirror would be worthwhile on this topic for most orgs. 1/6/8/14/16 stand out.
Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical aggregation in mitigating relative risk. Overly optimistic forecasts result from the adoption of an inside view of the problem, which anchors predictions on plans and scenarios.
Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management science, 39(1), 17-31.
Fantastic list!