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This is excellent John. I’ve often felt that product velocity is essentially a function of thrust (conviction, team/talent, clarity) minus drag (risk aversion, coordination costs, WIP).

The chase for metric purity is often rooted in risk aversion & mitigation more than anything else. It’s also why [measure what matters] might be true, but not everything that matters can/should be measured.

OTOH conviction can act as “jet fuel” to achieve “escape velocity” in the face of substantial ambiguity and risks.

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How do you think this more nuanced view of metrics-based strategy for big bets / experimentation fits together with "North Star"-style metrics? I feel like this post is way more relatable and representative of the early-stage startup experience, but I'm guessing the two aren't mutually exclusive concepts from your perspective?

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