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Lawrence Graham's avatar

Feels like the usual combo: survivorship bias + the consultancy need for a clean story.

Odds ratio thinking would show the “successful companies did X” pattern doesn’t hold up so neatly. Plenty of teams did the same things and still failed.

But “it depends” doesn’t sell workshops. So we get overfit models packaged as universal truths.

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Stepan Potapov's avatar

Thank you for this article, to be honest with you, it's probably a very first time when i see ideas, highlighting that not everyone from us needed to be ambitious in "western" way of thinking about business and by the way, my personal opinion that the concept of “endless achievement” is, on the whole, quite harmful to long-term and effective work; it is not the fuel that will take you far. It is curious that Marty himself, with his idea of inspired managers, achieved great success. It always seemed to me that there was a certain omission here: if you want to make your product truly successful, you probably have to work on it for at least a few years, maybe three or four, to be able to say with confidence that you have made some kind of tangible breakthrough. If you behave like a little Labrador puppy the whole way, I'm afraid that, first of all, unlikely to work, and secondly, it will lead to much poorer results than a more calm but conscious path toward goals that, as you rightly pointed out, are constantly changing, especially now. Thank you again for the article!

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